An unsettled, tropical air mass moves into Central Virginia today, setting up daily chances for showers and thunderstorms through mid-week before a hot, humid summer pattern returns by Thursday.

This Afternoon & Tonight

Temperatures: Highs reaching the mid-to-upper 80s under increasing cloud cover.

Rain & Storm Risk: Shower and thunderstorm chances increase from south to north through late afternoon and evening.

Severe & Flood Threat:

Areas generally west of I-95 are under a Marginal Risk for severe storms this afternoon, with isolated damaging wind gusts being the main severe concern.

Localized heavy downpours could cause minor flash flooding where storms repeat, though widespread flooding is not anticipated and no Flood Watch is currently in effect.

Overnight: Staying humid with lingering showers/isolated storms. Low-level cloud ceilings are expected to lower overnight (MVFR to localized IFR possible around RIC).

Monday – Wednesday: Humid & Unsettled

The Setup: A slow-moving upper-level trough keeps a warm, moisture-rich air mass parked over Virginia.

Coverage: Monday brings the highest and most widespread chances of storms this week, followed by scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Impacts: Heavy downpours may lead to localized nuisance or flash flooding given very high atmospheric moisture. The overall severe thunderstorm threat remains low due to weak upper-level winds.

Temperatures: Highs slightly below average (mid-80s) due to cloud cover and rain, with sticky, muggy conditions.

Thursday – Weekend: Typical Summer Heat

Pattern Shift: Rain chances taper back to typical, isolated-to-scattered late-afternoon pop-up thunderstorms.

Heat & Humidity: Temperatures rebound into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Dew points remaining in the mid-to-upper 70s will push heat index values near 100°F Thursday through Saturday.

Aviation & Marine Highlights

Aviation (RIC): VFR conditions this morning degrade to sub-VFR during afternoon storms. Lowered stratus CIGs (MVFR/IFR) are likely late tonight into early Monday morning.

Marine Advisories: Small Craft Advisories take effect at 4:00 PM today through Monday for the Chesapeake Bay, lower James River, sound, and ocean waters south/north, with S to SE winds gusting 25–30 kt and bay waves/ocean seas building to 3–6 ft.

Going to get caught in the rain or staying dried off inside? Drop your neighborhood below and let us know if you see any storms rolling in today! 🌧️👇 Don't forget to share with a friend who always forgets their umbrella!